Wednesday, October 25, 2017

External Collaboration - Ecosystems

User contributions, crowdsourcing, and ecosystem development are some of the several labels for external collaboration.  The connected world of industries and individuals have taken the platforms to become hubs of communities where producers and consumers interact more than ever before jointly creating new business models of collaboration.  These consumer platforms operate with their foundations closer to social communities of customers whether they are public, industry specific, or a business created. These communities organized as platforms are setting the stage for new ways of designing interactive customer experiences in scenarios with behavioral complexity and relational control. In this article, the terms ecosystems and platforms are interchangeable although ecosystems encompass platforms.
External collaboration is getting more sophisticated leading and following the customer (s) with technologies. Technologies are in place at every touchpoint of the journey following him/ her as a part of the system of life experiences. Ongoing, innovative, and experimental endeavors to fine tune the experience is expected to bring value with a higher impact on the interactions. The effort requires in depth understanding of the context, personal preferences, coming into play to provide a unique, unified, adaptive, proactive support system to the customer. The customer’s positive and negative feedback trail has much to offer for making these systems even more impactful.   
In the last decade and a half, the information age has emphasized migration of an array of back- end, robust information systems to web based, global systems. The quest for utilizing the internet’s strength as a larger ecosystem embedded by systems of platforms is taking shape in the business world.  Business models are harnessed to lure the new age global customer with experiences that are deeper in meaning, nurturing behaviors with every device that can augment human empathy.
Speaking of deeper and meaningful collaboration, Pink (2006) called this phenomenon attributing it to the dawn of “conceptual age.” He defines the conceptual age as “animated by a different form of thinking” with aptitudes of “high concept” and “high touch.” He further clarifies that high concept “involves the capacity to detect patterns and opportunities, to create artistic and emotional beauty, to craft a satisfying narrative, and to combine seemingly unrelated ideas into something new. High touch involves the ability to empathize with others, to understand the subtleties of human interaction, to find joy in one’s self and to elicit it in others, and to stretch beyond the quotidian in pursuit of purpose and meaning ”(pp. 51-52).   
The current trends in producer consumer interaction platforms are fundamentally different from the business models witnessed in the various stages of internet evolution so far. They combine the strength of internet as a platform along with the applications of the conceptual age as defined by Pink (2006).
Starbucks, Nike, and Coursera, adhere to a few principles of collaboration in ways of teaming and aligning, fostering participatory networks for building and sustaining their ecosystems. They all have one thing in common – their founders and leaders had a grand vision for everything they took on – the mission statement and their guiding principles. Outwardly, Starbucks is a coffee shop, Nike is a sportswear and apparel company, Coursera.org is a learning organization where anyone can learn from a professor from a world class school.
Starbucks’ mission statement includes words like “premium purveyor of finest coffee in the world.” The fans are in millions. It is meeting the needs by interacting with its fans on their ideas generated and leveraged at MyStarbucksIdea.com. What is more interesting is to analyze how they address the collaboration challenges for filtering breakthrough ideas from the millions of ideas. At http://mystarbucksidea.force.com/, there is a whole world of ideas happening here on a product, experience, and involvement. There is a voting system for deciding on what is next at Starbucks listening to the fans.   
Nike’s mission statement says – “bring inspiration and innovation to every athlete in the world” followed by the definition of an “athlete” (if you have a body, you are an athlete). Nike is an orchestrator of the estimated 98% of its production in Asian countries with diverse suppliers and products. Nike always focuses on its core competency and strengths around the athlete and its product design and R&D. The ecosystem reveals this. At http://www.nikefuellab.com/ Nike demonstrates its collaborative initiatives with the athletes with a “common language for movement” focusing on technologies and applications for measuring activity.     
Coursera’s app store model for choosing courses on the website lives up to its mission – “provide universal access to the world’s best education.” Thousands of students gather and openly collaborate with faculty and facilitators from reputed institutions of the world in MOOCs settings. Together they are enhancing the learning experience for students worldwide.   
Several models of external collaboration have taken shape in the always changing, rapidly innovating software industry. One of the most prominent models is the Open Source community model. The open source community continues to challenge the proprietary initiatives in the software industry. Linux operating system, adopted worldwide at a large scale on computer systems is the starting of the dominant cases of the marvels and miracles achieved by open source community. In 1991, thousands of volunteer software developers collaborated with a student, Linus Torvalds. He placed his software modules open for anyone willing to contribute and develop code under the GNU General public license. There is no stopping to this movement since then. The history of the evolution of the open source community model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-source_software_development) and several other team collaborations adopting various software development techniques are beyond the scope of this article.  It is enough to say that open collaboration and knowledge sharing has been the backbone of the meteoric rise of the software industry. Today, at the Top Coder (topcoder.com), more than a million coders around the world come together for similar crowdsourcing initiatives. Google’s mobile phone operating system Android (based on Linux kernel) is yet another case of open source initiative by Google. 
General Electric’s (GE) innovations in their core business are continuous since sixty or more years. There is a constant effort of scouting for external research and development in spite of it’s established idea generation factories and research labs globally. GE sponsors and collaborates research endeavors with universities and national labs for envisioning new fields of investment to maintain its leadership position in its core business.  GE recognizes that not only following new principles, discovering them is also crucial to compete as a leader.  
The grand challenges such as the one for Netflix to improve the movie recommendation algorithm is an example of crowdsourcing and team diversity and unorganized groups concepts. Every college student or a professional is aware of the concepts of team collaboration. However, the granularity of detail of the contributing factors is key to understanding success stories of team collaboration in various settings. It is not just talent, but also the emotional intelligence and agility of the groups of people working on innovative projects impact the results. Bringing together the best of people talent is not enough, combining their work in ways that only a group can achieve is the triumph of collaborative work. The individual does not lose, instead, shines with the spirit of the aligned group in such settings.
Managing trust and risks are inherent to any collaborative activity. When external resources are involved, the employee and outside collaborator have similar as well as different governance structures in an organization. While every organization has a window to the outside world with a website, has policies for public relations, and sales, initiatives for the external or open collaboration activities are different. The impact of an external collaborator on the innovative processes of the internal organization requires focus and attention to strategies for managing and developing the ecosystems.
Several known risks exist in external collaboration activities. Kannangara, S. N., & Uguccioni, P. (2013) identify at least eight types of dominant risks in the existing business ecosystem literature covering basics such as actors’ interdependence or complexities that are unique to collaboration when no one takes responsibility leading to uncertainty in results. 
Any collaborative initiative presents dilemmas requiring thoughtful action. An understanding of game theory principles and prisoner’s dilemma in particular help with determining possible paths of action for predictive outcomes even in complex scenarios at large scale. Business communities present complex dilemmas to the stakeholders. When the stakeholders are in large numbers, the network effects can be very high with highly interactive and dynamic scenarios, causing negative ripple effects for everyone involved. A carefully designed governance structure can avoid such effects. Game theories such as the Prisoner’s dilemma theory can be used in scenarios of collaboration, price wars and catch 22 situations as instances of prisoner’s dilemma in platform business.  This concept of the game, when extended to n players, results in thousands of experiments with scenarios for collective action and behaviors. For example, an understanding of the basis for the pricing wars that give rise to foundations for inter and internal firm partnerships for cooperation as well as rivalry requires experiments and simulations to help envision outcomes and prepare with measures of success mitigating risks.  Architectures of participation involving stakeholders to connect, contribute, collaborate, and co-create are coming to shape the open organization where the network does most of the work. Cook, S. (2008) discusses “user contribution taxonomy” where both active and passive users contribute, whether it is providing expertise as in building Wikipedia encyclopedia, creativity via YouTube video sharing sites or provide behavioral data as in the case of Amazon recommendation systems. Removing barriers and obstacles is the first step in an organization to become more participatory.
Interest graphs bring relevance and context to handle information overload caused in such networks. The interest graph of the individual helps learn about his/ her activities beyond the realms of Facebook and Twitter. Machine learning or data mining algorithms accomplish this now for networked organizations for content curation. Several of the consumer collaboration trends suggest how the seemingly disparate ideas are filling the gaps people need the most. Competition, return on investment, making up the numbers of profitability can take the firms only so far. Although it appears that the challenges of collaboration on a large scale are designing for loss of control and handle the overload of information, the organization can prepare and reap the benefits.  Companies can explore the feasibility by systematically analyzing of why crowdsourcing is useful and resolves their problem at hand, what they can crowdsource, and how they can approach the initiative.


References:
Kannangara, S. N., & Uguccioni, P. (2013). Risk Management in Crowdsourcing-Based Business Ecosystems. Technology Innovation Management Review, 32-38.


Cook, S. (2008). THE CONTRIBUTION REVOLUTION. (cover story). Harvard Business Review86(10), 60-69.

Pink, D. H. (2006). A whole new mind. New York, New York : Penguin Group.

Idelchik, M., & Kogan, S. (2012). GE's Open Collaboration Model. Research Technology Management55(4), 28-31. doi:10.5437/08956308X5504101










    



Saturday, October 7, 2017

ABC’s of Big data and Machine learning in the AI Ecosystem:

Computing machines are capable of holding an ocean of knowledge and also can recall relevant material useful to resolve dilemmas for competing in sports or provide expert advice for evidence based medicine at lightning speed. Machines have learned to sense, respond, debate, discuss, and interact with reasoning to achieve such extraordinary capabilities which have been the territory of only expert human beings so far.
The preceding statements are reflective of the vast variety and broad spectrum of applications with varied maturity levels and much promise. There are a few points to note when we come across Machine learning and Big Data connecting them to Artificial intelligence.
1. There is much to unlearn about information systems built when data, information storage, and access were at a premium.
It was necessary for engineers to follow computing models that required instructions for anticipating every possible scenario to develop information systems. Engineers were limited by programmable computing (a.k.a Von Neumann computing) to build systems that helped people both at work and in their personal lives. They still prevail for solving numerous business problems.
In the age of big data, the nature of computing is changing to fit the needs of more complex and uncertain scenarios. Computing has now begun to show the potential to adapt to humans naturally in every walk of life.
2. Nature of decision making and problem-solving systems of the industrial age emphasized the left brain thinking based on logic and analysis for the most part.
The left brain thinking became the foundation of the automation mechanisms built to aid human and organizational endeavors. Left brain thinking and the infrastructure in the analytics space encompass applications built around traditional databases. These applications evolved and contribute to Business intelligence, broadly covering data warehousing, online analytical processing, and meta-data repositories. While all of them use past data and experience for knowledge and discovery – there are differences. The exercise is beyond the scope of this notes. The one thing in common is that they use sorting and searching algorithms with sequences of instructions which lead to responses from the systems.
3. The potential of Big data and Machine learning is enabling to explore and build right brain systems which are taking shape as the AI ecosystem.    
Smart, intelligent, cognitive systems support the Artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem. Cognitive computing systems are developing human capabilities and interactions, and scale better than ever before.  Machine learning, prescriptive and predictive analytics, deep learning, recommendation engines, evidence-based expertise, narrative science and much more comprise the Artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem backed by Cognitive computing.
In the consumer and business space, the technologies of analytics, big data, cloud, and AI are converging to form the AI ecosystem. The AI systems are capable of deriving inferences and pursue the objectives with the data provided. The AI systems draw on the fundamentals of statistics and data mining algorithms with iterative, improved learning from real time data. 
4. The AI ecosystem as heard in the business communities represents a higher maturity level of analytics compared to the descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics practices.

Examining the types of questions asked and problems solved is a way to probe into the state of capabilities of the systems for the business. Tom Davenport brought up analytics maturity levels at the organization level more than a decade ago on how to take the first steps for exploring data based decision making in his work “Competing on Analytics.” He later discussed the three stages of Analytics maturity (Davenport, T. H. (2013)). He called the era of Business Intelligence as Analytics 1.0 (up to the mid-2000s with enterprise data warehousing capabilities and business intelligence software),  Analytics 2.0 as the era of Big data (internet based social media and networks begin to amass data), Analytics 3.0 as the era of building analytical power into consumer products.
5. Machine learning is different. The talk about machine learning is around predictive or descriptive learning using big data applying statistical and mathematical models that scale.

Data mining models and applications come closest – except they use large data bases. Typically, data mining tasks are grouping people or objects based on selected characteristics, estimating for inferring or guessing reasonably, predicting expecting behaviors as a consequence of previous actions. The list goes on with more statistical models with deeper selective techniques for evaluating relationships and associations. 
The ability to question determines the level of understanding to find solutions. With descriptive analytics, there is an understanding of the power of analytics for starters. Progressing to predictive and prescriptive analytics lets the business come up with frameworks to arrive at desired results experimenting with product mixes. Machine learning overlaps with the foundations allowing to scale and iterative collaboration with man and machine. The use cases of predictive analytics are varied – for example, figuring consumer behavioral patterns, forecasting sales, predicting failures in machinery or fraud. [Ref: Chapter 6, Hurwitz, J., Kaufman, M., & Bowles, A. (2015)].  
Machine learning broadly encompasses supervised learning (through association, regression, classification) and unsupervised learning for pattern recognition – an engineering term for classifying. A super market chain or Amazon would prefer to know the customer’s next choice of items based on previous purchases. Customer too prefers to check out the cart faster. These recommendation engines and matching systems work with recognizing behavioral patterns obtained from the data. Recognizing patterns helps derive a response of likelihood of a behavior. Detecting frauds, stock market predictions with changing data and environment require learning and intelligence more than just depending on the system designed using a large database with traditional, structured queries.  Applications for recognizing speech and faces, robotics, and biometrics use machine learning techniques.  High-risk scenarios such as patient health management are yet another use case for advanced analytics combined with AI ecosystem.  
6. A broad spectrum of business analytics applications is beginning to show up as machine learning applications.
Advanced analytics including data warehousing applications scenarios are on one side of the spectrum. One such category of questions is those that predict re-order levels for inventory management based on sales next quarter. Machine learning is helping when answering questions such as alerting city security when a large-scale crime scene is unfolding in real time or even predict one. Applications based on machine learning and a mix of advanced analytics get better iteration after iteration – as they learn from the previous happenings. On the other end of the spectrum are the applications that mimic the brain with intelligence that far surpasses known human expertise in medical or space sciences. The infrastructure is built on the principles of Neuro Science and Nano Technology to design cognitive chips to take up part of the tasks the human brains can accomplish (see Dharmendra Modha and SYNAPSE).
7. Watson, AlphaGo. 

Any briefing about AI systems is not complete without mentioning the AI Super computers IBM’s Watson and Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo. There are more in the race – most heard are Microsoft’s Oxford and Baidu’s Minwa. The problems that Watson takes up have come a long way since the initial Jeopardy win in 2011. Watson is being trained to aid doctors in the area of evidence based medicine for treating diseases better. AlphaGo is no longer limited to winning the Go board game. They are image recognition engines with natural language processing powers participating actively in the AI ecosystem.
Conclusions:
The primary message is to focus on the ability to compute differently and use data uniquely to look beyond the horizons seeking the unexplored and understand subtleties. The structured and unstructured data from various sources is beginning to come out of the dark to shed light on the patterns, correlations to match data with deep expertise to answer tough questions for businesses. The broad and vast maturity levels of the analytics and big data capabilities is the guiding force for enabling AI ecosystem growth. To take the first step is to set the stage for a vision towards the organization’s power to tap into the potential of machine learning and big data. Cognitive systems with the power of big data and machine learning are to become the sources of new dynamic knowledge sources to think and act differently on information for businesses.   

Note: This is a work in progress article for https://www.techcastglobal.com/

References:
Alpaydin, Ethem. Introduction to Machine Learning, edited by Ethem Alpaydin, MIT Press, 2014.
Davenport, T. H. (2013). Analytics 3.0. Harvard Business Review91(12), 64-72.

Kelly, III, John E., and Steve Hamm. Smart Machines: IBM's Watson and the Era of Cognitive Computing, Columbia University Press, 2013. 
Hurwitz, J., Kaufman, M., & Bowles, A. (2015). Cognitive computing and big data analytics
Loshin, David. Business Intelligence, The Savvy Manager’s guide, Morgan Kauffman Publishers, 2003.

August 2011 Communications of the ACM: Volume 54 Issue 8, August 2011
What to expect from Artificial intelligence, Sloan Management review, Spring 2017.



Monday, October 2, 2017

Emergence of Digital Ecosystems – Part I

Technological and global trends suggest the traditional organizations are facing systemic challenges today. Uber and Airbnb have clearly overturned the transportation and hotel industries worldwide. Google is not just a search engine, and Amazon is not just an online bookstore. Google has changed the reading and researching habits of peoples around the world, while Amazon has forced brick and mortar bookstores to close and is seeping into every nook and cranny of modern life. One venture of Jeff Bezos, Blue Origin, is leading the transition to private space.
When equipped with digital devices, workers and their methods of work seem to undergo shifts never imagined before. In close observation, there appears to be a hidden structure that brings out the unexpected in these systems. Their strategies seem to be transparent, yet unpredictable. These organizations are continuously evolving, and their ecosystems appear to be self-organizing. There is a purposefulness behind their efforts taking them to new directions more often than expected. 
The evolution of biological ecosystems demonstrates this process of emergence. The changes that occur when a caterpillar turns into a butterfly are one of the best metaphors to explain the systemic change. The cells in the caterpillar’s body are somehow responsible for a total transformation or metamorphosis. This same process is useful to understand how organized groups of producers and consumers a transformed into a new economic ecosystem. Where clusters form, there is a swarm effect. It is easy to trace such patterns of intense swarm activity in mobile, smartphone, and instant messaging systems like Twitter to find a medical epidemic or a political crisis.
Highly transparent systems allow for the emergence of structure and the unexpected even in conditions of chaos. To meet the most pressing needs of their audience, there seems to be no place for what is not pragmatic in the new order, and they give rise to new, unpredicted systems. For instance, social media permits understanding the untold stories of how immigrants survive in new lands, which in turn can reduce crime, create better city designs and help assimilate a foreign culture. The key to driving evolution and emergence is in having a deeper grasp of the inherent structure at the ecosystem level. 
The authors of “The Dragonfly Effect” highlight the power of digitalization to dramatically reorganize a social system. When large numbers of Asians were struggling with almost certain death sentences from leukemia, the Sameer and Vinay research team used social media to start a drive to increase the availability of bone marrow registrants. The results were of seismic magnitude.  By focusing on goals, grabbing attention and engaging people to take action, a flood of bone marrow transplants solved the problem in a remarkably short period and at an unprecedented scale.  This ability to move quickly in any direction is what the authors called “the dragonfly effect.” (Aaker, Jennifer & Smith, Andy, 2010) 
In learner-centered environments of the digital world, facilitating discussions results in uncovering the learning patterns of students. Students normally tend to do what they are told, and faculty adhere to the course objectives. But in carefully crafted and facilitated environments, the overall rhythm of a course can emerge into areas that change the curriculum and teaching methods to focus on what matters to students based on their daily work life.  Recognizing the value of new knowledge and practice, as well as learner preference, requires thinking in frameworks that don’t limit the student’s abilities and potential to grasp beyond teaching in the classroom.
This expanded mission of a university to foster creative work environments converts resistance into the emergence of new learning and teaching models. That newfound ability has permitted Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) to come a long way from the older MIT Open Course Ware to Coursera and Udemy of today. It is not surprising to see individuals passionate about creating schools that cover a much wider range of social topics not addressed by a traditional curriculum.   
In modern workplaces, it is common to observe the emergence of work structures leading to unforeseen methods and root causes that require attention. An equipped, smart, mobile worker requires an organization that supports communication from the site to his desk and allows the integration of work and attending to personal needs.  GPS navigation systems help a FedEx or UPS worker take the most optimized routes for delivery and pickup. An airplane contractor independently schedules cleaning and catering systems that adhere to stringent regulations. Emergence is dynamic by nature. Being watchful is meant to bring governance back to the core that matters, change work structure from the bottom up, and lead to new decisions from the top.
The shift in perspectives and thinking is the key to adaptive behavior. It is required by any organization that fosters innovative practices as a norm rather than an exception. Trying to practice this only when a need arises is impossible. It leaves out those who don’t dare to take on the journey and can also lead to disastrous outcomes. A child who questions can be seen as an annoyance who disturbs order in the home. One can also view the inquisitive child on a journey to new horizons. Understanding these issues of digital emergence needs to take center stage in organizations today.
To be continued in Part II.
Note:
https://www.techcastglobal.com/techcast-publication/the-dragonfly-effect-emergence-of-digital-ecosystems-part-i/?p_id=592
References:

Canton, James. (© 2015). Future smart: managing the game-changing trends that will transform your world.
Aaker, Jennifer & Smith, Andy. (© 2010). The dragonfly effect: quick, effective, and powerful ways to use social media to drive social change